This morning Fareed Zakaria noted that Vladimir Putin is not only more isolated in his solo control of Russia, but also more emotionally volatile. This complicates a geo-strategic problem: he may have set in motion a series of political disasters from which he cannot gracefully exit. Despite very impressive Ukrainian resistance, it is very likely that Putin (Russia?) will take complete military control of Ukraine. But as I described in my last post, that specific success might trigger a larger defeat if more countries join either NATO or the EU. How, then, can Putin be persuaded to refrain from further violence without losing face?
Neither the U.S. nor Russia have direct control of the many variables at play here. Consider if Greece reverses position and supports Turkey’s accession to the E.U. Unlikely, but possible. Recep Tayyip Erdogan would have been unlikely to accept this offer a week ago, but a few more missteps by Russia might change his mind. Immediately after that, Georgia and Armenia would probably apply for membership, and then as a new member Turkey would lobby for Azerbaijan to join. At which point, the E.U.’s southeastern borders would be Syria, Iraq, Iran, and the Caucasus regions of the Russian Federation: Abkhazia, North Ossetia, Chechnya, and Dagestan. The only countries on that list that did NOT endure violent warfare in the last twenty years are Iran and Dagestan. Russia certainly would not want this EU expansion, and even Americans and west-European EU members might worry about it. But Greece and many of the Slavic east-European countries might feel strong sympathies for their Christian Orthodox siblings in Georgia and Armenia, and Turkey would certainly lobby on behalf of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is also rich in oil and natural gas, and that might tip the vote in an EU cut off from Russian gas supplies.
My point, with the foregoing speculation, is how a plausible scenario of local, adjacent political and cultural affinities could rapidly cascade outside of the control of anyone who wants to de-escalate this situation.